Iran Civil Center: Would you please tell us a little bit more about yourself?

Mr. Zhonghao Shou: Thank you very much for the interview. I am a retired Chinese chemist, working for the Hangzhou Product Quality Control Institute as a technical servant in charge of my lab before.

My story is long, complicated, sad, but proud, interesting. My wife, writer, has been writing it for a few years, but has not finished, yet. However, I would like to show you a little.

When I was 7, I made a gun, some gun powder, and a shoot with the both successfully.

I had excellent memory, understanding, and creativeness when I was young. I got "A" of all exams, and was named the best in my grade, 700 classmates, by the most famous high school in Zhejiang province in 1956.

In my doctrine, the value of a person is to devote oneself to truth and justice. Unimaginable, the both interrupted me to enter any university during the Anti-Right Movement, and the Cultural Revolution later.

I was largely self-taught. I finished two majors: Chemical Analysis, and Dyeing Technology, and many books about instruments. I published six articles in state journals, and could fix many kinds of instruments.

After having solved a number of various, high, technical problems, I got an engineer degree, equal to a master degree in USA.

I never saw my father, but respect him very much because he devoted his young life to China during World War II.

People in my hometown commend me as a copy of my father, but I feel ashamed because I am so-so.

ICC: When and how did you decide to work on Earthquake Prediction?

Mr. Shou: I made my first earthquake prediction by an earthquake cloud to two colleagues in my hometown Hangzhou (30.25N, 120.16E) on June 20, 1990.

Eighteen hours later, the 7.7 Northern Iran earthquake killed and injured 370,000 people.
Surprisingly, the tail of the cloud had pointed toward the epicenter exactly.

Seismologists in my hometown tried to convince me to devote myself to earthquake prediction, but I declined them for four reasons:

• First, my hometown had no earthquake in history, so I could not observe earthquake phenomena to develop my theory.
  
  
• Second, Chinese earthquake catalog was not complete, so I had no reliable rule to check if a prediction was a hit or a miss.
  
  
• Third, a Chinese scientific movie taught us "a 3-minute delay" from feeling a shock to being hit, which should be long enough to escape.
  
  
• Fourth, my study to clarify polluted water was the best in Eastern China, and I wanted to save fishes.

In 1992, I began to retire. Soon, I made two devices, admitted as patents later. In May 1993, I came to California. My initial plan was to investigate American technology for one year, then go back to accept new jobs as a technical consultant.

However, the Northridge earthquake in January 1994, changed my plan for four reasons:

First, I photographed its cloud, I was aware that I got the essential for short term prediction. Second, I was the only one predicting it with a scientific tool, so I felt my obligation deeply. Third, I encountered its strong shock, up and down about a foot, then left and right a foot in Pasadena, 39 km away from the epicenter. There was no 3-minute delay. In the 30-second shock, I could not move a step. Fourth, the American database was much better than that of China. Therefore, I decided to change my plan.

However, I got a big debate with my wife, insisting in my return for three reasons:

1. Scientists in the World had worked on earthquake prediction for centuries without any success.
   How could I be successful just by observation?



2. I could earn much more money in China, but would waste my daughter’s pitiful scholarship in USA.



3. Our apartment building would be rebuilt.

My daughter Wenying persuaded her mother to image me as a common retired man without ability to earn money, but a favor to plant noble flowers and bred rare gold fish that cost a lot.

She told her mother that my "favor" should be more honorable. She claimed to share her scholarship to support my work.

My wife required me to answer her last question by myself. She asked me if I ensured my work to be successful. After a few minutes silently, I told her that I was sure that my theory would rule over the world 300 years later after my death.

She was impressed by my faith, and agreed with me. I really appreciate Wenying for support, and my wife for understanding.

I often feel guilty to my wife and younger daughter who deeply suffered from rebuilding the apartment building.

ICC: Would you please describe how you predict earthquakes?

Mr. Shou: I have two steps to predict earthquakes.

1. An earthquake cloud is different from a weather cloud because the former with high temperature and high pressure emerges from a fault suddenly, while the latter forms from an open area gradually.
   
   Thus, there are five differences between them:
   
   
   • Firstly, the former always appears suddenly, e.g. the Northridge Earthquake Cloud, emerged in one second, while the latter does not.
   
   
   
   • Secondly, the former has a special shape like a line, a feather, a bind of parallel waves, a radiation, a lantern pattern:
     
     
     and so on, while the latter looks like a mass usually.
   
   
   
   • Thirdly, the former has a strange direction due to its high pressure, e. g. the 7.4 Turkey earthquake cloud over Sir Lanka was moving toward east against the wind:
     
     
     while the latter does not.
   
   
   
   • Fourthly, the former has a fixed issue, which can be showed by a cold surrounding sometimes.
     
     For instance, the Bam, Iran earthquake cloud was exactly from Bam:
     
     
     while the latter does not.
   
   
   
   • Fifthly, the former reveals heat sometimes, for example the 6.1 Afghanistan earthquake cloud in a hot hollow, surrounded by a giant weather cloud:
     
     
     while the latter does not.
   
   In short, meteorology can not explain the about five phenomena, which are tools to detect an earthquake cloud from general weather clouds.
   
   


2. I predict an earthquake by the following 3 principles:
   
   
   • First, its epicenter will be in an area where the tail of the cloud pointed toward.
   
   
   
   • Second, its magnitude can be predicted by comparing the size of the cloud with those, whose relevant earthquakes already happened.
   
   
   
   • Third, its time will be within 103 days, the longest span between an earthquake cloud and its relevant earthquake among about 500 events, and 30 days in average.

ICC: Has there been any scientific approval about your activities?

Mr. Shou: Yes. Some of them are listed as follows:

• I published four articles regarding to earthquake prediction in Turkey in 1999.


• ABC TV and Yahoo in USA reported my successful Mexico earthquake prediction in 1999.


• KAOS TV in USA reported my successful Seattle earthquake prediction of 2001.


• Amman TV in Jordan propagated my theory in 1999.


• Chinese Central TV admired my motive to earthquake prediction in 2000.


• Jing News, Taiwan twice reported my work in 1999.


• Hangzhou daily reported my work and personality in 2000.


• The Times of India News Service reported my work in 2001.


• Iranian Daily Newspaper reported my Bam earthquake prediction and high admired my theory in 2004.

ICC: How many percent of your predictions have come to be true?

Mr. Shou: Under a limit that I could not obtain the data I need, about 70% of my predictions, reported to the US Geological Survey from 1994 to 2001, have come to be true.

If I had gotten a fund to expose the trace of an earthquake cloud, the correct proportion would have been much higher.

ICC: Please describe what the meaning of "Time Window" is and how it can be reduced?

Mr. Shou: "Window" is a term for a predicted range in English. "Time Window" means when the predicted earthquake will happen.

It is very difficult to narrow a time window because many factors such as rock property, underground pressure, temperature change, etc affect the delay from a cloud to its subsequent earthquake.

However, it would be possible if we set up an especial satellite camera system by my theory to pinpoint out all the large epicenters at first.

Next, measure pressure and temperature underground around the pinpointed area, and record the delay from the cloud to its subsequent earthquake, and rock property.

Do the same way in many events for data. Then, set up a function among all of those factors.

Finally, it will be possible to narrow a time window into a few days.

ICC: Do you have any message for Iranian People around the globe?

Mr. Shou: Yes. There are two messages:

• First, Laura Barrios from Chile wrote, "Let’s hope this sad experience bring you an international support to your work".
  
  It was for all people in the world, including Iranian people, to support my work.



• Second, I exhibited an essay "Thanks Iranian Daily (Ettelaat) & Scientist Amoli" to thank both for reporting my Bam earthquake prediction, propagating my theory, and admiring my method as the best on earthquake prediction so far.

ICC: Thanks for the time you have given to us.

Mr. Shou: You are welcome. Thank you for the interview, and hope Iranian people to be "safe and sound!"